In November 2017, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 53.8, up 1 from the previous month.8 percentage points (see chart 1), up 1 percentage point from a year earlier.Eight percentage points。The index rebounded strongly this month, the highest since the data began。From the perspective of the external economic environment, the global manufacturing industry has rebounded this year, and the manufacturing PMI index of the world and major developed economies has shown a steady upward trend: in October, the global manufacturing PMI index released by jpmorgan Chase was 53.5, is the highest recorded this year, 1 higher than the same period last year.Five percentage points;The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US came in at 58.7, 6 higher than the same period last year.Eight percentage points;Markit's eurozone manufacturing PMI and Nikkei's Japanese manufacturing PMI came in at 58.5和52.8, both significantly higher than the same period last year (5.0和1.4 percentage points)。From the perspective of the domestic economic environment, China's manufacturing PMI index has remained at 51.5 Slight fluctuations around the industrial economy is generally stable。From the perspective of domestic policy environment, the report of the 19th National Congress clearly pointed out that "the focus of economic development must be placed on the real economy", and our province has also introduced policies to vigorously support the development of the real economy。Under the common influence of positive factors at home and abroad, it is expected that the industrial economy of our province will achieve stable growth and improve quality advantage throughout the year。The details are as follows:
Figure 1Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to November 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 58.0, up 5 from the previous month.0 percent, the highest since the data began。The production index rose sharply this month, indicating that the surge in production of manufacturing enterprises in our province is related to the strong demand at the end of the year and the acceleration of production of enterprise orders。
The new orders index (product orders) was 55.7, up 1 from the previous month.Six percentage points。Among them, the new export orders index was 54.1, up 3 from the previous month.1 percentage point, the external economy picked up, promoting a substantial increase in export orders。
The raw materials inventory index was 51.8, down 0 from the previous month.One percentage point。Since September, the raw materials inventory index has jumped to 52.Near 0, a significant increase from the first eight months of this year, indicating a significant increase in manufacturing business confidence。 The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 50.4, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。In the past three months, the labor index fluctuated slightly above and below the line of growth and contraction, and the employment of enterprises was stable。 The supplier delivery time index is 48.9, down 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points。Supplier delivery times have been slightly accelerated。
Figure 2Trend chart of manufacturing PMI sub-index of Guangdong Province from January 2013 to November 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from November 2016 to November 2017
In November 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.5, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Eight percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 55.4, up 1 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 48.6, down 1 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry is 48.6, down 1 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 53.2, up 0. 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for auto manufacturing came in at 58.4, up 3 from the previous month.Nine percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 53.8, down 3 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The Forest paper purchasing managers' Index (PMI) was 45.9, down 4 from the previous month.Six percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a special expert in the interpretation of the provincial PMI index and a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee, pointed out that in November 2017, the PMI index of our province increased significantly by 1.Eight percentage points, at 53.At 8, it is the 21st consecutive month that it has remained on the line between expansion and contraction。The two important indices with the highest weights, production and new orders, are as high as 58.0和55.7, hit a new high in the past 6 years since the PMI index was announced in November 2011。On the whole, the development trend of the manufacturing industry in our province has been more consolidated with steady progress and steady change。
Chen Hongyu thinks，In November, the manufacturing PMI index of our province opened high，The primary factor is，Policies that attach importance to and support the real economy at the macro level have been fully implemented，The vitality and competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises have been significantly enhanced，From January to October, the main income and profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size in our province reached double digits。Secondly, the factors of festivals and long holidays in October caused the synchronized downward consolidation of the weight indexes, which accumulated a high function for the PMI index in November。Third, the PMI growth rate of major industrial countries in Europe and the United States has exceeded expectations recently, and the re-active international trade has created space for expansion of the manufacturing industry。In November, the new export orders and import orders index of our province's manufacturing industry increased by 3 percent compared with the previous month.1个和4.Two percentage points to 54.1和54.0。
Chen Hongyu believes that November and December have always been the key months for manufacturing enterprises in our province to concentrate on rushing to ship。From the sub-indices of this month's PMI (including the PMI indices of various cities and major industries), the sub-indices of raw material inventory, finished goods inventory, and backlog of orders have begun to decline, and the logistics pressure has gradually increased, indicating that some enterprises have accelerated shipments by mining inventories。In order to prevent the uneven cold and hot conditions that may occur after the beginning of spring，Maintain the steady expansion of manufacturing industry in our province，It is recommended to prepare for a rainy day in the macro aspect，At the end of the year and the first quarter of next year, the basic trend of our province's industry to make a forecast，Grasp the time node，Introduce relevant measures，We will guide some regions and industries to appropriately control growth before the end of the year，The allocation of resource elements and the focus of work are pre-adjusted to the quality and efficiency of the New Year。